August 1st, 2014

The FXContest OANDA was discontinued August 1, 2014.
Ended before the “Realized” would reach 10 digits.
To not feel too frustrated I have to sum the “Realized” from all active accounts and so we have: 1,210,203,666.45

See details below.

Portfolio Return (MG-PT account):











December 31, 2013

01 – Y2013 Contest (MG-PT)“.
The target set for 2013 was not achieved.
Because the activity was very small, it was not possible to close the account at the end of the year, keeping “Realized P&L” in the order of 10 digits.
I hope this account (outdated) will be closed during the year 2014.
This year we have a new competition, “01 – 2014 Contest (MG-PT)” with a new account where I can transfer and withdraw funds.

See details below.

Portfolio Return (MG-PT account):




Week 25, 2013, further reading

by Dean Popplewell, OANDA
Week in FX Europe – EUR’s Kiss Of Death From Ben
by Dean Popplewell, OANDA

Week in FX Asia – Bank of Japan Dissapoints Markets with Inaction Yen Rises | OANDA Forex Blog


This week the Bank of Japan found out just how harsh and fickle a mistress the market can be. The BoJ was the darling of the market and the shining example of how a central bank should intervene. Tuesday Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and the Japanese currency suffered the brunt of the market’s criticism for their lack of action. The currency rose to 96 and has continued to rise as the week progressed. There were expectations that the BoJ would increase its monetary stimulus.

Comments from the influential Mr. Yen summed up the feeling around Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s third arrow of reform. Eisuke Sakakibara is pessimistic given the proximity of elections. Abe can’t introduce new reforms until fall to avoid compromising the results of the elections. Abe’s bold statements and follow through by Kuroda was seen as the one-two punch needed to get Japan back on track, but the expectation was that they would not stop there.

Sakakibara does not expect reforms before or after the election and adds his voice to the critics of Abe’s third arrow of reform as the first arrow of BoJ intervention is lacking in long-lasting impact.

Next week Japan will continue to be part of a G8 meeting where there could be rumblings of currency intervention. Although with the current state of the Yen this is less likely as the weakening could be unsustainable. The G8 might have suspected this from the start. Industrial production indicators will be released as well as foreign investment which will give insight on how well Abenomics is working on the real economy and investment.


* AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes
* GBP Core Consumer Price Index
* GBP BOE Inflation Letter
* USD Consumer Price Index
* GBP Bank of England Minutes
* USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
* USD FOMC Economic Projections
* USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
* EUR Producer Price Index
* CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
* BOE Bank of England Minutes
* CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index

Week in FX Asia – Bank of Japan Dissapoints Markets with Inaction Yen Rises | OANDA Forex Blog

Paul Krugman: Elementary, My Dear Watanabe-san (Somewhat Wonkish)


OK, sorry about the bad translingual joke. But I thought it might be interesting to try doing a bit of deductive analysis on the sudden 7 percent plunge in the Nikkei.

One important thing to bear in mind, when it comes to big financial market moves, is that there may be no fundamental explanation at all. I’m old enough to remember the 1987 stock crash, which was followed by many theories about which policy move might have been responsible. As it happened, however, Robert Shiller managed to do a real-time survey as the market was plunging, and found essentially nobody mentioning any of the reasons later given for the selling wave. Instead, everyone said that they were selling because … prices were falling.

Still, to the extent that there is some fundamental story, what clues would we look for? And the answer, surely, is to ask what was happening in other markets, especially bonds and currencies.

Let me give you three different stories, each of which could explain a Nikkei plunge:

1. Fears about weak Japanese and Asian growth.
2. Fears about Japanese debt– the bond vigilantes have finally arrived.
3. Fears about the resolution of the Bank of Japan, its willingness to persist in very expansionary monetary policy for a long time.

All of these imply a fall in stocks; but they have different implications for bond and currency markets.

Story 1 should mean a fall in Japanese interest rates, since weaker growth should imply looser money for longer. Indeed, the recent runup in Japanese stocks and interest rates have gone hand in hand, suggesting that what we’ve been seeing is basically rising optimism. (Many of us have used similar arguments to wave away the claims that debt fears are driving occasional upticks in US rates). But in this case Japanese interest rates went basically nowhere.

Story 2 should have seen bond rates rising sharply, which they didn’t. Also, it should have meant a weakening in the yen — which actually rose significantly. So, not the bond vigilantes.

What about story 3? The impact of expected future monetary policy on long-term interest rates is ambiguous — rates might rise because they expect the BoJ to tighten, or fall because they fear that it will fail to end deflation. But worry about the BoJ’s resolve should have a clear impact on the yen, which should strengthen — which it did.

So to the extent that this wasn’t just markets doing their occasional panic thing, it looks like a sudden outbreak of concern about whether the Bank of Japan has really changed as much as it seems.

Elementary, My Dear Watanabe-san (Somewhat Wonkish) –

Week in FX Asia – Bank of Japan Doubles Bond Buying Weakens Yen


The Bank of Japan (BoJ) captured the attention of the foreign exchange world last week when it started to live up to the expectations of the market. After much anticipation, and lots of preceding rhetoric, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda announced the BoJ’s plan to double its bond buying efforts to reach the 2% inflation target in the allotted two-year window. It was his comments on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s inflation goals while still at the Asian Development Bank that might have won him the top job at the Japanese central bank. Earlier this week, the program kicked into gear and the JPY lost 4% versus the USD and 5% versus the GBP. The main beneficiaries have been Japan’s exporters and holders of Japanese stocks with the Nikkei Index reaching new highs on the value of the yen.

The decision has not been without its critics and some, such as George Soros, cautioned that the fall in the yen could be “an avalanche” that the BoJ could not stop if the Japanese people start to sell the currency. China and South Korea remain critical of the move, branding it a currency war before the Group of Twenty meeting last February. This week, the negative criticism persisted, but the words used were “monetary blackmail” instead of “currency war”. Those ugly words have not been uttered since the Group of Seven made it clear that as long as Japan’s monetary easing means are used for domestic aims, it does not imply unfair currency manipulation.


* CNY Real GDP
* AUD RBA Policy Meeting Minutes
* GBP Consumer Price Index
* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
* EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment)
* USD Consumer Price Index
* NZD Consumer Prices Index
* GBP Bank of England Minutes
* CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
* USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
* CAD Consumer Price Index

Week in FX Asia – Bank of Japan Doubles Bond Buying Weakens Yen | OANDA Forex Blog