Week In Review February 24th to March 1st


 

Week in FX Europe – EURO Wallowing In No-Man Land
The EUR received only temporary support from a surprise uptick in Spanish manufacturing data early Friday. The 17-member currency hastily lost it all when other Euro-zone activity headlines began to disappoint. For now, the dollar is back in demand despite the US sequester cloud that kicks in with automatic spending cuts later today. The overall tone in Europe’s financial markets remains subdued ever since it was announced that Euro-zone banks would sharply scale back their early repayment of funds from the ECB’s three-year lending operations next week. In total +EUR12.5b is to be repaid, a sharp drop from last week’s +EUR62.8b. Negative news flow continues to have an impact on Euro regional funding markets.
EUROPE Week in FX

Week in FX Americas – Loonie Split Personality
The CAD currently possesses some untameable traits. Just when you think the “big”; dollar has safe haven dominance across the board, long CAD trades are back in vogue despite the negative economic headlines. It is thought that too many short CAD positions were trying to call the shots on Friday early, eventually allowing the USD to back down from its weekly highs. For a brief period, Canadian tepid economic growth and potential worries about the US sequester dragging on US growth, strengthened demand for safe-haven Canadian government bonds. However, it seems that investors extracted signs of economic resilience in the otherwise lackluster Q4 gross domestic product report and embraced the fact that the data was not any poorer, had the loonie rallying.
AMERICAS Week in FX

Week in FX Asia – Kuroda Nominated to BoJ Governor
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda to lead the Bank of Japan. Kuroda has previously stated when he was in the running for the nomination that the 2 percent inflation target set by Abe was realistic and could be achieved in a 2 year timespan. Kuroda is a proponent of aggressive monetary easing, and will likely be an important ally of Prime Minister Abe in his attempts to kick-start the anemic Japanese economy Kikuo Iwata, a professor at Tokyo’s Gakushuin University and BOJ Executive Director Hiroshi Nakaso were nominated for the two deputy governor positions. Current Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his deputies will step down on March 19.
ASIA Week in FX


WEEK AHEAD

  • EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index
  • AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
  • EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales
  • AUD Gross Domestic Product
  • EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product
  • CHF Gross Domestic Product
  • CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
  • JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision
  • GBP Bank of England Rate Decision
  • CNY Manufacturing PMI
  • GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target
  • EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision
  • JPY Gross Domestic Product
  • EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision
  • USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls
  • CAD Unemployment Rate

Click here for more details on the week’s activity

OANDA: Week In Review January 28th to February 1st




by Dean Popplewell
Greetings!

 

Week in FX Europe – Dollar Perception Has the EUR Appreciating
Quantitative Easing or QE has been the main driver of exchange rates and it will probably remain this way for some time. The change in the balance sheet values of the ECB and the Fed has had an extreme effect on the value of the ‘single’ currency. More importantly, the Fed and ECB actions over the past week points towards a continuation of this EUR strength.
EUROPE Week in FX

Week in FX Americas – The Loonie Bears Had Their Wings Clipped
The loonie was supposed to weaken this week, only because everyone said so. However, the currency took off in one direction and that was higher. The bears did get a bit of a reprieve after Friday’s tepid US employment results, but at parity, there is ‘no harm no foul.’ The US jobs report now deflates fears of the Fed pulling back stimulus, supporting both equities and bonds and hurting the greenback somewhat.
AMERICAS Week in FX

Week in FX Asia – The Kiwis Gave Us “The Hobbit” And Now An Expensive “Dollar”
While the Yen is getting battered against all currencies on the grounds that the Japanese government wants that to be so, the Kiwi is rallying. Governor Wheeler at the RBNZ has been the main catalyst for this appreciation. All week the market has heard hawkish comments come from his office. On Wednesday, the RBNZ chose to leave the OCR unchanged at +2.5%. The Governor is bullish about New Zealand’s economy, saying “economic indicators are improving here and with many of our trading partners” and “positive global sentiment is resulting in lower bank funding costs and reduction of credit costs for both households and firms alike.”
ASIA Week in FX


WEEK AHEAD

  • AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
  • EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales
  • AUD Unemployment Rate
  • EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision
  • CNY Consumer Price Index
  • EUR German Consumer Price Index
  • CAD Unemployment Rate s